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2021-08-15 15:25:34 | onclick: | The key element of futuristic literacy -- reflective ability

In this paper, we argue that a key component of futurology literacy is the ability to reflect on different attitudes towards the future. Various academic traditions and futuristic practices put forward different epistemological ideas around the future and its performance in the present. These different approaches have different views on analyzing, understanding and influencing the future, and show different attitudes towards the meaning of "meaningful interaction with the future". Due to the diversity of attitudes towards the future and different possible modes of interaction with the future, futuristic literacy is more complex than it seems at first. Examining the recent literature of futurology, we sort out four approaches to future problems, which are different in epistemology and ontology. We argue that the so-called futuristic literacy depends on the reflection on two issues: one is the different ways of interacting with the future, and the other is the Enlightenment of these different approaches to future oriented actions. This means that we have to reflect on two questions: how different approaches to future problems are formed, and what is the power structure under different approaches. We also studied the possibility of cultivating the reflective ability of futurology, and put forward a set of questions in the conclusion to guide the better study of the reflective ability as a key element of futurology literacy in the future.

The four approaches mentioned in the summary are:

Predictive futurology approach. This approach focuses on understanding the possibility of the end of different futurology, including the future prospects with low probability but will have a significant impact once it occurs. The futuristic literacy of this approach is manifested in the ability to understand, explain and apply quantitative methods to extrapolate scenes, and estimate the occurrence probability of different scenes.

A plausible futuristic approach. This approach believes that the future has profound uncertainty, and a variety of future scenarios may seem credible within the limited structure. The futurology literacy required by this approach is systematic thinking, that is, to understand that under the joint action of various driving forces, there will be a challenging and complex future.

Experimental futurology approach. This intervention approach aims to produce a shared reality with current mobilization. The futuristic literacy required by this approach means that both individuals and groups should have imagination and the ability to generate new reality and stimulate other people's imaginative behavior. Futuristic literacy in this aspect also means recognizing that the dominant futures are constructed, and the alternative futures are always waiting to come out, that is, recognizing the "current evolutionary potential".

Critical futurology approach. This approach does not advocate positive and formative interaction with the future, but focuses on uniting people and rethinking and deconstructing the future image and imagination about the future. In the process of deconstruction, critical intervention will demystify, naturalize and historize people's imagined future, which shows that the views and understandings about seemingly credibility, acceptability and probability are not self-evident or natural, but social process, conscious intervention The distribution of power and people's existing collective imagination of the future and social structure.

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